There is too much free-and-easy punditry and crystal ball-gazing around. This is a very small fire to which some of the mystics’ feet may now be held:
I hadn’t looked at it like that before. I have voted against AGM resolutions occasionally in the past (Unilever’s attempted escape most recently), but linking executive salaries to a growing disapproval of dividends and buybacks gives me added motivation to do my shareholder homework.
| Pundit | Date | Prediction | Result | Verdict |
| Marc Faber | 7 August 2014 | S&P down 10-20% (from 1925) by Autumn (year end) | Aug – Dec 2014 +6.57% | Out by > 20% |
| Barry B. Bannister (Stifel Nicolaus & Co.) | 19 August 2014 | S&P 2300 up 17% (from 1981) by year-end 2014 | Aug – Dec 2014 +6.57% | Out by > 10% |
| Wellershoff & Partners | 26 August 2014 | S&P to fall to 1398 (from 1997) by 26 Aug 2019 | 2874 17 Apr 2020 | It only got as low as 1932 after that prediction |
| Peak Theories Research | 27 August 2014 | S&P to have ‘scary’ fall of 50 to 60%, when it does turn down | Fall of 34% in 2020 | Still waiting |
| Doug Kass | 7 October 2014 | “We’re heading for a bear market“. The current dip will turn into a correction/bear market (-4.0% at time of prediction). | It didn’t | Close out those shorts |
| Warren Buffett | 8 October 2014 | Hillary Clinton to run for President and win the election in 2016. | Her hat got to the ring | Well he got the first part right |
| Sam Eisenstadt | 3 April 2015 | S&P to reach 2310 by end September (+11.8%) | 1951 Oct 2 2015 (a high of about 2100) | Sell in May and go away … |
| Marc Faber | 29 April 2015 | The next correction will turn into fall of >30% or 40% (1264 on S&P) | It corrected in Jan 2016 | and then went up again |
| Warren Buffett | 4 May 2015 | Bonds are ‘very overvalued’ and if he had an easy, non-risk way to short the 20 or 30-year bond, he would. 30-year starting yield = 2.98 | 1.265% on 18 Apr 2020 | Well they are more overvalued now … |
| Peter Schiff | 15 May 2015 | Gold is heading for $5000 per ounce from a price today of $1225. | $1686.5 on 18 Apr 2020 | One day, no doubt |
| Deutsche Bank | 8 June 2015 | S&P 500 to drop between 5 and 9% by the end of the Summer from a price of 2086. | 1921 on Sep 4 | Kudos to Deutsche! |
| Jeremy Siegel | 14 July 2015 | Dow to reach 20,000 by year end from a price of 18,000 for a gain of over 11% in 5.5 months. | 17425 on Dec 31 2020 | It didn’t even get back above 1800 |
| Laszlo Birinyi | 4 August 2015 | S&P to reach 3,200 within two years, for a gain of over 50%. (Today 2095) | 3200 finally reached Dec 2019 |
Two years too late |
| Charles Dumas | 20 April 2020 | S&P to drop below 2000 by summer 2020 (Today 2581) | ||
| Bank of America | 23 April 2020 | Gold price to hit $3000 (Today 1745) | ||
| Gary Shilling | 2 May 2020 | S&P to drop 30 – 40% by early 2021 (Today 2830) |